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When Will the Global Population Start to Shrink?
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Everyone alive today has only ever lived in a world with a growing population. And for the opposite to be true, the number of people being born would have to be outpaced by the number of people dying.
As it happens, that particular inflection point is not too far off according to latest estimates. We visualize the latest UN forecasts for the number of global births and deaths. Figures were sourced from the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024.
Global Births and Deaths (1950–2100)
In 2023, 132 million babies were born and nearly 62 million people died. Resulting in a population growth of 70 million people (+0.9%).
But as birth rates fall around the world, the number of deaths occurring each year is expected to surpass the number of births by 2084. This could potentially kick off an era of global population decline.
YearGlobal BirthsGlobal DeathsPopulation Growth / Decline
195091,824,00048,487,000+43,337,000
195192,507,00048,176,000+44,331,000
195297,371,00047,383,000+49,988,000
195397,291,00047,240,000+50,051,000
1954100,188,00046,662,000+53,526,000
1955101,748,00046,636,000+55,112,000
1956101,759,00046,479,000+55,280,000
1957106,018,00046,881,000+59,137,000
1958104,644,00046,518,000+58,126,000
1959102,000,00050,725,000+51,275,000
1960102,378,00054,612,000+47,766,000
1961100,951,00049,919,000+51,032,000
1962112,039,00046,061,000+65,978,000
1963119,803,00046,913,000+72,890,000
1964117,292,00046,823,000+70,469,000
1965117,837,00048,214,000+69,623,000
1966117,233,00047,842,000+69,391,000
1967116,920,00047,569,000+69,351,000
1968121,826,00047,629,000+74,197,000
1969122,228,00047,816,000+74,412,000
1970124,136,00048,163,000+75,973,000
1971123,740,00049,384,000+74,356,000
1972123,554,00047,770,000+75,784,000
1973123,564,00047,573,000+75,991,000
1974122,709,00047,478,000+75,231,000
1975121,030,00047,623,000+73,407,000
1976121,322,00047,707,000+73,615,000
1977120,787,00047,167,000+73,620,000
1978122,141,00047,293,000+74,848,000
1979125,000,00046,964,000+78,036,000
1980127,447,00047,350,000+80,097,000
1981129,716,00047,471,000+82,245,000
1982133,207,00047,659,000+85,548,000
1983131,968,00048,207,000+83,761,000
1984134,365,00048,431,000+85,934,000
1985136,374,00048,773,000+87,601,000
1986139,301,00048,644,000+90,657,000
1987141,347,00048,657,000+92,690,000
1988140,986,00049,183,000+91,803,000
1989142,249,00049,178,000+93,071,000
1990143,461,00049,794,000+93,667,000
1991138,307,00050,108,000+88,199,000
1992136,591,00050,282,000+86,309,000
1993135,632,00050,832,000+84,800,000
1994135,143,00051,931,000+83,212,000
1995134,850,00051,407,000+83,443,000
1996134,321,00051,411,000+82,910,000
1997133,986,00051,432,000+82,554,000
1998133,858,00051,854,000+82,004,000
1999134,059,00052,184,000+81,875,000
2000135,758,00052,240,000+83,518,000
2001135,380,00052,431,000+82,949,000
2002135,396,00052,758,000+82,638,000
2003135,701,00053,077,000+82,624,000
2004136,596,00053,188,000+83,408,000
2005137,166,00053,390,000+83,776,000
2006138,469,00053,282,000+85,187,000
2007139,936,00053,410,000+86,526,000
2008141,759,00053,987,000+87,772,000
2009142,968,00054,123,000+88,845,000
2010143,354,00054,269,000+89,085,000
2011143,879,00054,581,000+89,298,000
2012146,055,00054,795,000+91,260,000
2013145,015,00055,093,000+89,922,000
2014145,268,00055,545,000+89,723,000
2015144,334,00056,306,000+88,028,000
2016144,854,00056,757,000+88,097,000
2017143,602,00057,572,000+86,030,000
2018140,333,00057,793,000+82,540,000
2019138,597,00058,355,000+80,242,000
2020134,720,00063,546,000+71,174,000
2021133,449,00069,728,000+63,721,000
2022132,475,00062,279,000+70,196,000
2023132,110,00061,652,000+70,458,000
2024132,406,00062,389,000+70,017,000
2025132,399,00063,136,000+69,263,000
2026132,503,00063,637,000+68,866,000
2027132,591,00064,626,000+67,965,000
2028132,761,00065,678,000+67,083,000
2029132,989,00066,739,000+66,250,000
2030133,256,00067,827,000+65,429,000
2031133,513,00068,954,000+64,559,000
2032133,765,00070,103,000+63,662,000
2033134,065,00071,289,000+62,776,000
2034134,381,00072,486,000+61,895,000
2035134,669,00073,714,000+60,955,000
2036134,946,00074,948,000+59,998,000
2037135,141,00076,206,000+58,935,000
2038135,355,00077,450,000+57,905,000
2039135,515,00078,710,000+56,805,000
2040135,669,00079,951,000+55,718,000
2041135,673,00081,209,000+54,464,000
2042135,636,00082,443,000+53,193,000
2043135,581,00083,672,000+51,909,000
2044135,407,00084,890,000+50,517,000
2045135,109,00086,093,000+49,016,000
2046134,764,00087,282,000+47,482,000
2047134,271,00088,448,000+45,823,000
2048133,752,00089,607,000+44,145,000
2049133,163,00090,746,000+42,417,000
2050132,555,00091,877,000+40,678,000
2051131,923,00092,986,000+38,937,000
2052131,280,00094,084,000+37,196,000
2053130,667,00095,173,000+35,494,000
2054130,020,00096,249,000+33,771,000
2055129,485,00097,293,000+32,192,000
2056128,995,00098,309,000+30,686,000
2057128,531,00099,310,000+29,221,000
2058128,110,000100,283,000+27,827,000
2059127,755,000101,242,000+26,513,000
2060127,431,000102,157,000+25,274,000
2061127,117,000103,025,000+24,092,000
2062126,876,000103,870,000+23,006,000
2063126,635,000104,678,000+21,957,000
2064126,430,000105,485,000+20,945,000
2065126,218,000106,273,000+19,945,000
2066126,019,000107,032,000+18,987,000
2067125,793,000107,799,000+17,994,000
2068125,547,000108,554,000+16,993,000
2069125,260,000109,292,000+15,968,000
2070124,986,000110,035,000+14,951,000
2071124,696,000110,770,000+13,926,000
2072124,348,000111,529,000+12,819,000
2073123,982,000112,258,000+11,724,000
2074123,573,000112,984,000+10,589,000
2075123,140,000113,707,000+9,433,000
2076122,693,000114,417,000+8,276,000
2077122,209,000115,099,000+7,110,000
2078121,660,000115,749,000+5,911,000
2079121,107,000116,357,000+4,750,000
2080120,555,000116,924,000+3,631,000
2081119,955,000117,418,000+2,537,000
2082119,412,000117,862,000+1,550,000
2083118,804,000118,270,000+534,000
2084118,220,000118,619,000-399,000
2085117,622,000118,941,000-1,319,000
2086117,028,000119,206,000-2,178,000
2087116,442,000119,458,000-3,016,000
2088115,886,000119,684,000-3,798,000
2089115,345,000119,920,000-4,575,000
2090114,805,000120,136,000-5,331,000
2091114,283,000120,359,000-6,076,000
2092113,773,000120,604,000-6,831,000
2093113,262,000120,878,000-7,616,000
2094112,773,000121,154,000-8,381,000
2095112,282,000121,465,000-9,183,000
2096111,831,000121,754,000-9,923,000
2097111,397,000122,077,000-10,680,000
2098110,941,000122,380,000-11,439,000
2099110,501,000122,664,000-12,163,000
2100110,028,000122,922,000-12,894,000
Note: Columns can be sorted to see which years are expected to have declines.
By the year 2100, the UN estimates the global population could shrink by nearly 13 million people, roughly the current populace of Bolivia.
Of course, these estimates are not exact and occur within a 95% confidence interval. It’s a range within which the true values are expected to fall 95% of the time. At the uppermost band, births still outnumber deaths in the year 2100. At the lowermost band, population decline could start closer to 2060.
Why does this matter? Simply put, population decline is not a phenomenon the world economy is currently built for. It disrupts labor markets, strains social security systems, and threatens economic growth by reducing consumer demand. This can lead to a cycle of stagnation and increased debt.
On the other hand, it can result in reduced resource demand and extraction. With fewer people, education could see increased investment, resulting in a skilled workforce better equipped to changing economic needs.
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For more related content, check out out this chart which visualizes the old-age dependecy ratio for ten major economies in 2050.
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